Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 11.596487 13.282310 15.098725 17.197793 19.552961 22.110167 25.093097
2025-06-22 9.305471 11.630581 14.329773 17.680061 21.711054 26.388072 32.207635
2025-06-29 7.853878 10.391882 13.483884 17.500785 22.550881 28.656512 36.560275
2025-07-06 6.450429 9.001995 12.253015 16.657258 22.419981 29.650153 39.345895
2025-07-13 5.854651 8.540270 12.091086 17.069244 23.797246 32.493577 44.488368
2025-07-20 5.334372 8.106422 11.898427 17.383685 25.017571 35.152397 49.487141
2025-07-27 4.783921 7.560004 11.482493 17.326601 25.686458 37.065038 53.537770
2025-08-03 4.272147 7.010106 11.000473 17.114953 26.091326 38.597827 57.100635
2025-08-10 3.891700 6.614554 10.699038 17.122325 26.779400 40.524528 61.264900
2025-08-17 3.599470 6.323938 10.522841 17.287682 27.685146 42.777853 65.967203
2025-08-24 3.296166 5.983727 10.237380 17.254415 28.273369 44.575302 70.062729
2025-08-31 3.000653 5.626217 9.891862 17.093279 28.640158 46.040399 73.705514
2025-09-07 2.787384 5.393748 9.737149 17.235443 29.501747 48.314243 78.706788
2025-09-14 2.660368 5.300356 9.803996 17.739732 30.961140 51.565060 85.336695
2025-09-21 2.425913 4.989036 9.473830 17.552603 31.278710 53.037102 89.253868
2025-09-28 2.111295 4.496844 8.788937 16.709295 30.456115 52.653346 90.218411
2025-10-05 2.018368 4.417705 8.828846 17.121549 31.751742 55.710661 96.771848
2025-10-12 1.918763 4.315410 8.817161 17.437159 32.891459 58.552337 103.076405
2025-10-19 1.777726 4.115709 8.608436 17.379810 33.373968 60.318900 107.677580
2025-10-26 1.630216 3.887656 8.327409 17.167620 33.564984 61.594493 111.499940
2025-11-02 1.521517 3.730702 8.170788 17.174999 34.142894 63.540171 116.506630
2025-11-09 1.439016 3.622362 8.101052 17.340814 35.011774 66.012552 122.487618
2025-11-16 1.342100 3.472173 7.935196 17.307455 35.506526 67.846221 127.429047